For fishermen along the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts, Cyclone Arnab is already a working decision, not a forecast. The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority has advised fishermen to return to the coast immediately, warning that sea conditions will become very rough as the developing storm approaches landfall on October 28.
Fishing operations are recommended to be suspended in vulnerable sea areas on October 28 and 29. The advice is blunt because the timeline is short: the system, still a depression on Sunday morning, is expected to become a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26, a severe cyclonic storm on October 27, and a very severe cyclonic storm by the morning of October 28.
Where the storm is now
As of Sunday morning, the depression sat 470 kilometres north northwest of Sri Vijay Puram in the Andaman Islands, 860 kilometres east southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 950 kilometres east southeast of Kakinada. Landfall is forecast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the north Andhra Pradesh coast, with sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour, gusting to 140.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh is forecast to receive widespread and extremely heavy rainfall on October 27 and 28, with very heavy rain also expected across southern Odisha through October 29. In Puri district, an advisory has been issued and Chilika Lake boat services have been suspended, a sign that the disruption to coastal livelihoods has already begun before the storm arrives.
What the sea warning means
As the Indian Express reported, the weather department has issued heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings for the Andaman Islands through October 27, and red warnings for five Odisha districts for October 28. The sea warning sits alongside those land warnings, but for fishing communities it is the more urgent one, because boats at sea cannot shelter from a storm that is still days away on land.
The economics of the warning are harsh: every day tied up is a day without income, and the peak of the disruption coincides with the days when the catch would normally be landed and sold. Yet the alternative, boats caught by a very severe cyclonic storm in rough seas, is worse. The advice to return now is the cheapest insurance available, and the next 48 hours will show whether it was followed in time.
