Russian oil refining capacity has been reduced by about 30 percent since late October following renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, industry sources said. The figure, reported as the Abu Dhabi talks entered a second day, shows how far Ukraine long range campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has come, and how much it is costing Moscow.
Why it matters
The campaign has widened in the past week. A drone attack caused a fire at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga on Wednesday, injuring three workers, and Ukrainian strikes have hit energy facilities across Russia even as negotiators sit down in Abu Dhabi. The pattern is deliberate: Kyiv is hitting the revenue that funds the war while talking about ending it. The war has now run for 56 months, and both sides are hitting the energy infrastructure the other needs to keep fighting.
The timing matters for the talks. Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, and the second day was expected to resume on Wednesday. A 30 percent cut in refining capacity gives Ukraine leverage at the table, and it gives Russia a reason to want the strikes to stop, which is exactly what a negotiation needs.
What happens next
The energy war cuts both ways. Russian strikes on Ukraine energy network cut power to hundreds of thousands of people on Sunday, and the war has now run for 56 months with both sides targeting the infrastructure the other needs to keep fighting. The Abu Dhabi talks are the first serious attempt in nine months to break that cycle.
What happens next will be decided in Abu Dhabi and in the skies over both countries. If the talks produce a prisoner exchange and a path to a leaders meeting, the drone campaign may pause. If they fail, the refining numbers will keep falling, and the energy war will keep widening. A drone attack caused a fire at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga on Wednesday, injuring three workers, and Russian strikes cut power to hundreds of thousands of people in Ukraine on Sunday. The prisoner exchange on the table in Abu Dhabi would be one of the largest of the war if it is agreed.
