The United States Energy Information Administration has sharply raised its oil price forecasts, warning that the war with Iran is draining global stockpiles and keeping fuel markets under severe strain.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, reported on October 6, the agency forecast that the global benchmark Brent crude would average about $98 a barrel in 2026, up 8 percent from its prior forecast, and reach about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter — $14 above its earlier estimate.
American drivers are feeling the pressure directly. US retail diesel prices, which hit record highs last month, are expected to stay above $6 a gallon in October before easing to an average of roughly $4.50 in 2027, according to the outlook.
Global stockpiles are falling rapidly, the agency said, and diesel markets remain especially tight. Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline underscored the risk of further disruption, while the Strait of Hormuz — which carried about 20 percent of global oil supplies before the war — remains a source of acute anxiety for traders.
Oil prices are up more than 37 percent since the war began on February 28, and the EIA’s revisions suggest officials now expect the crunch to persist well into next year. For consumers and businesses alike, the era of cheap fuel appears to be over for the foreseeable future.
